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Second Thermal and Fluids Engineering  Conference

ISSN: 2379-1748

CHARACTERIZING UNCERTAINTIES IN A THERMAL STORAGE PACKED BED USING BAYESIAN INFERENCEWITH MCMC AND VARIATIONAL APPROXIMATIONS

Ashley Emery
Univ. Washington

Sang Ien
University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-2600

DOI: 10.1615/TFEC2017.tpp.017670
pages 3213-3226

摘要

Estimating thermal properties using Bayesian inference can be computationally demanding. The usual maximum likelihood (non-linear least squares) gives point values and an rough idea of the uncertainty in the parameters if their distributions are approximately normal. More accurate results require a Monte Carlo approach which for complex models is unrealistic. The Variational Bayesian approximation gives results comparable to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with only a few evaluation of the simulation model.

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