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Second Thermal and Fluids Engineering  Conference

ISSN: 2379-1748
ISBN: 978-1-56700-430-4

CHARACTERIZING UNCERTAINTIES IN A THERMAL STORAGE PACKED BED USING BAYESIAN INFERENCEWITH MCMC AND VARIATIONAL APPROXIMATIONS

Ashley F. Emery
Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Washington, USA

Sang Ien
University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-2600

Abstract

Estimating thermal properties using Bayesian inference can be computationally demanding. The usual maximum likelihood (non-linear least squares) gives point values and an rough idea of the uncertainty in the parameters if their distributions are approximately normal. More accurate results require a Monte Carlo approach which for complex models is unrealistic. The Variational Bayesian approximation gives results comparable to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with only a few evaluation of the simulation model.

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