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ホーム アーカイブ 役員 今後の会合 American Society of Thermal and Fluids Engineering

STATISTICAL REVIEW OF FOSSIL FUELS CONSUMPTION FOR DIFFERENT SECTORS AND FORECASTING THEIR ENDING TIME

Mahsa Farzaneh
University of Florida

Arash Shadlaghani
Department of Mechanical & Energy Engineering, University of North Texas, Denton, TX 76209, USA

Russell Reid
Department of Mechanical & Energy Engineering, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas 76209, USA

DOI: 10.1615/TFEC2019.cbf.027261
pages 1883-1891

要約

Although the environmental effects of fossil fuels are clear, its production and consumption have been remaining dominate over the course of years because of their high energy density. Energy agencies such as Energy Information Administration (EIA) and British Petroleum (BP) published data of energy consumption. Unlike previous studies on regional or country usage, this paper details the global share of each fossil fuel in different end-sectors including residential, industrial, commercial, and transportation. The present article also proposes a future trend for fossil fuels consumption using two important factors: population and economic growth. The results show that with increases in gross domestic product (GDP), the rate of fossil fuels consumption is also increased. In addition, three models are considered for end-estimation of fossil fuels based on the available reserves and production patterns. This novel approach reveals that two of the models predict an ending time for fossil fuels while according to the third model, fossil fuels will not end in the near future because new reserves will be discovered.

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