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ISSN Online: 2379-1748

ISBN Flash Drive: 978-1-56700-469-4

ISBN Online: 978-1-56700-470-0

Second Thermal and Fluids Engineering Conference
April, 2-5, 2017, Las Vegas, NV, USA

CHARACTERIZING UNCERTAINTIES IN A THERMAL STORAGE PACKED BED USING BAYESIAN INFERENCEWITH MCMC AND VARIATIONAL APPROXIMATIONS

Get access (open in a dialog) pages 3213-3226
DOI: 10.1615/TFEC2017.tpp.017670

Resumo

Estimating thermal properties using Bayesian inference can be computationally demanding. The usual maximum likelihood (non-linear least squares) gives point values and an rough idea of the uncertainty in the parameters if their distributions are approximately normal. More accurate results require a Monte Carlo approach which for complex models is unrealistic. The Variational Bayesian approximation gives results comparable to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with only a few evaluation of the simulation model.