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Главная Архив Оргкомитет Будущие конференции American Society of Thermal and Fluids Engineering

ISBN : 978-1-56700-470-0 (Flash Drive)

ISBN : 978-1-56700-469-4

Second Thermal and Fluids Engineering Conference
2017, 2-5 April, Las Vegas, NV, USA

CHARACTERIZING UNCERTAINTIES IN A THERMAL STORAGE PACKED BED USING BAYESIAN INFERENCEWITH MCMC AND VARIATIONAL APPROXIMATIONS

DOI: 10.1615/TFEC2017.tpp.017670
pages 3213-3226

Аннотация

Estimating thermal properties using Bayesian inference can be computationally demanding. The usual maximum likelihood (non-linear least squares) gives point values and an rough idea of the uncertainty in the parameters if their distributions are approximately normal. More accurate results require a Monte Carlo approach which for complex models is unrealistic. The Variational Bayesian approximation gives results comparable to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with only a few evaluation of the simulation model.