ISSN Online: 2379-1748
ISBN Flash Drive: 978-1-56700-469-4
ISBN Online: 978-1-56700-470-0
Second Thermal and Fluids Engineering Conference
CHARACTERIZING UNCERTAINTIES IN A THERMAL STORAGE PACKED BED USING BAYESIAN INFERENCEWITH MCMC AND VARIATIONAL APPROXIMATIONS
Estimating thermal properties using Bayesian inference can be computationally demanding. The usual maximum likelihood (non-linear least squares) gives point values and an rough idea of the uncertainty in the parameters if their distributions are approximately normal. More accurate results require a Monte Carlo approach which for complex models is unrealistic. The Variational Bayesian approximation gives results comparable to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with only a few evaluation of the simulation model.